An insecure and angry Russia will be Europe's problem, not America's.
Europe should Europeanise Russia. This will not be easy. As demonstrated in the recent Ukraine tragedy, Russia is torn between its Slavic and European destinies.
Fortunately, most European intellectuals understand Russia's historical anxieties. It was invaded countless times by European powers. American intellectuals do not understand Russia and, more dangerously, do not understand how Russia felt humiliated by America after the Cold War ended. I was standing next to the then Russian ambassador to the United Nations Sergei Lavrov when he exploded in anger upon learning that Bill Clinton had decided to bomb Baghdad in 1998 without consulting Russia.
An insecure and angry Russia will be Europe's problem, not America's. America has wisely taken care of its neighbourhood by integrating Canada and Mexico into NAFTA. So too has China with its generous concessions to ASEAN in the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. Indeed, China has shown extraordinary wisdom by drawing all its neighbours into an interdependent mutually beneficial trade relationship. This is why we do not worry about a war over Taiwan.
The size of the EU's GDP is $16.5 trillion while that of Russia is only $2 trillion. Yet Russia remains the only military power with the capacity to destroy Europe. Sheer common sense would dictate that the EU should begin by offering a one-sided trade agreement (like China initially offered to ASEAN). Such a trade agreement would spur FDI into Russia, encourage the creation of a new manufacturing economy and a new Russian business class and middle class tied to Europe. This would be a long-term process of slow and careful seduction.
In the current poisonous post-Ukraine atmosphere, few Europeans believe that this could succeed. But sheer geopolitical logic will drive Russia away from China's embrace into a closer relationship with Europe. And if Europe cannot succeed even if the geopolitical forces are aligned in its favor, it will show that something has gone drastically wrong in European geopolitical management.
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