Since a tiny pond called the Mediterranean Sea separates Europe from North Africa, it is puzzling that decades of European aid has only resulted in fragile or failed states in North Africa.
Europe needs to begin a new chapter in its relations with North Africa, a region that Europe has failed to modernize or even helped to stabilize. Since a tiny pond called the Mediterranean Sea separates Europe from North Africa, it is puzzling that decades of European aid has only resulted in fragile or failed states in North Africa.
The ASEAN region until 20 years ago looked even less promising than North Africa. Yet today ASEAN is a rising star while North Africa drifts downwards. What went wrong in North Africa? And what did ASEAN do right?
The most populous Islamic state is Indonesia. And it is emerging as a shining star in economic development and democratic stability. Most Europeans privately view the Islamic world with despair. Can Southeast Asia give Europe hope that European-Islamic relations are not destined to fail?
The biggest demographic challenge that Europe will face will come from Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa. Europe's population levels from 1950 to 2050 will remain more or less stable, from 550 million to 700 million. By contrast, Africa's total population will explode from 230 million to 2.4 billion. The growing number of Africans trying to cross the Mediterranean since 2000 provides early warning of the migrant floods to come.
The strategic dilemma Europe faces with Africa can be captured one sentence: if Europe does not export jobs to Africa, Africa will export Africans to Europe. 20 years ago, there seemed to be global despair about African economic development. Yet the Economist projects that 7 out of the 12 fastest growing economies in 2014 are African. Hence, today, there is real hope that African economies can succeed. The big question that European policymakers need to ask is whether the successful African economies are succeeding because of European help or European neglect.
To end on an optimistic note – while all the surveys show that most European populations view the future with foreboding, by contrast, most of Asia and Africa (and, probably, Latin America) view the future with great optimism. For centuries, the European continent was viewed as one of the most successful continents on our planet. And Germany is one of the most successful economies.
If Europe led by Germany engages the world more intelligently, the optimism of the rest of the world will seep into European veins. And the world will look brighter in European eyes.
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