Germany will need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, which will require some hard decisions on energy policy, and must also work to revitalise NATO.
The Ukrainian crisis is still unfolding. Russia is trying to put maximum pressure on the government in Kiev, by directly challenging its control over East Ukrainian cities and imposing ever higher gas prices. Threats to Moldova also serve to keep the region unsettled, while the methods used to "protect" Russians in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine could in principle be used against a number of countries in Russia’s "near abroad".
As the crisis is still unfolding any suggestions on measures to resolve the current dispute will be overtaken by events. The urgent need is for Kiev to be able to hold elections and achieve a degree of stability. The most important medium-term task is to work on an emergency package for Ukraine, dealing with debt, energy, corruption and economic rebalancing, even while addressing issues of governance and facilitating fair elections. Success in this area is the most effective response to President Putin.
The issues raised by the events of recent months are profound. They directly challenge the softer model of international relations promoted and exemplified by Germany. They raise question about the extent to which others can be trusted and the risks of vulnerabilities, the problems of maintaining good and productive relations with everyone at a time of conflict, and so issues of priorities. Since the adoption of the Ostpolitik Germany has been able to play a constructive role as an interlocutor with Moscow. This role can continue. Active diplomacy remains vital.
Nonetheless for the moment there is a Russian problem that cannot be managed by reassuring words. Handling these crises requires an honest discussion of the risks associated with alternative courses of action (I am assuming that none are risk-free) in response to a dangerously provocative pattern of behaviour. Germany will need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, which will require some hard decisions on energy policy, and must also work to revitalise NATO, and in particular support those members of the alliance close to Russian borders.
It is unrealistic to expect a massive increase in European defence spending, but the downward trend needs to be reversed. More seriously it is necessary to have a serious security debate within Germany about the role of alliances, nuclear deterrence and the implications of a Russian leadership that has turned into an autocracy and has an eye on the reconstruction of the old Soviet Union.
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