External View

The Middle East is currently going through one of the most fundamental transitions in its history. The region is only in the very early stages of a political transition process that will likely span several decades. While the structures in the Middle East have been broken open, there is nothing ready-made to replace what existed before. What this means is that Europe, including Germany, will be confronted with a long drawn-out process of political contestation that is highly volatile and marked by varying degrees of violence. Even the oil-rich monarchies of the Arab Gulf cannot be considered immune to political change in the coming decades.  
 
With no models to be copied or imported that will return the region to immediate stability, foreign influence is and will continue to be limited and, in some cases, even counterproductive. Where domestic processes are concerned, the battles have to be fought domestically. This implies that the new political order that will eventually emerge will look very different from country to country, from Syria to Yemen and from Oman to Morocco. Each country will experience a step-by-step process that will see reform steps being implemented slowly and to varying degrees of success. The whole exercise will be three steps forward, two steps back - meaning that overall movement will be forward, but incremental, drawn-out, and uneven.  
    
For an outside power, the key areas to focus on are institution-building, the implementation of an effective rule of law, and economic reforms. Without the trust of the people, any reform effort will be viewed with suspicion and the chances for success are limited. Given that people have learned the power of the street, they will return to use that power and demonstrate against any future injustice. To prevent a continued decay of the state, the focus needs to be on building those institutions that are critical to the development of a society. This includes the security services in order to maintain stability (although within the framework of security sector reform); institutions that provide infrastructure services such as water and electricity, health services; and the economic and finance ministries that handle unemployment benefits or pensions in addition to bringing about some degree of macro-economic stability.  
 
To bring about better institutional responsiveness and effectiveness, the rebuilding process has to be accompanied by widespread implementation of the rule of law based on transparency and accountability. Officials need clear rules whereby corrupt practices are eliminated. In addition to domestic reform challenges, the regional strategic environment as seen from the Arab Gulf region and its capitals at the outset of 2014 is unsettling and disquieting.